Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93be…af87 sports 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$327 (-4%) realized −$323 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%159W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$192
14 days−$1,714
30 days−$1,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$274
other 6% −$139
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.8% -27.5% 52% 52% -20.8%
≤30d 155 -49.9% -54.7% 32% 32% -31.9%
≤90d 266 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 56% -13.6%
all 266 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 56% -13.6%
10% -26.9% 45% -21.9%
15% -33.9% 32% -29.4%
20% -40.4% 20% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses159 / 107
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage77d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 66¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$15 +81%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 −$112 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $18 +$9 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $77 +$35 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $179 −$177 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$9 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $104 +$55 +53%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $183 +$119 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $161 +$23 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $140 +$20 +14%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $117 +$40 +34%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $109 +$24 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $65 +$44 +68%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $41 −$15 -36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $27 47h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 84¢ $12 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $6 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $4 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $114 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $28 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $7 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $113 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 68¢ $77 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $3 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $179 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 46¢ $103 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $141 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 70¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $159 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 60¢ $29 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 572 history records