Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93bd…d16e
crypto · 1178 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$46 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses897 / 234
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1131 / 1178
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day268.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 57 History 1131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$74
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 76¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 77¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? No 81¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 82¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? No 75¢ 91¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 76¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 79¢ 93¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 83¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 87¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 89¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? No 91¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? No 89¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? No 92¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? No 80¢ 85¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? No 74¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$20 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$13 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$23
weather 4% −$17
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 56m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 884 +0.8% -8.8% 78% 29% -11.2%
≤30d 1131 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 30% -10.1%
≤90d 1131 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 30% -10.1%
all 1131 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 30% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover268.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 30% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 15% -18.7%
15% -24.7% 9% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.75 · official $114.76 (match) · 3500 history records