Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x93bd…4c05 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$310 (+39%) realized +$323 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$214
14 days+$365
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$475
sports 21% −$66
world 7% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.4% +18.0% 23% 23% +43.5%
≤30d 19 +34.5% +21.7% 26% 26% +45.8%
≤90d 19 +34.5% +21.7% 26% 26% +45.8%
all 19 +34.5% +21.7% 26% 26% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 26% +45.8%
10% +10.1% 26% +31.8%
15% -0.6% 26% +19.1%
20% -10.3% 26% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$23 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$323
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage14d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $86 −$7 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $1 −$10 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$63 +194%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$118 +231%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $29 +$284 +970%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 +$38 +88%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $14 −$9 -61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$183 +436%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 43m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $170 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 46h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $7 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $83 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $60 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $313 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $29 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $72 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $73 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 7d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.81 · official $186.81 (match) · 56 history records