Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

93 0x93b8…1001 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day95.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-10.5%	-19.0%	33%	22%	-26.6%
≤30d	18	-10.5%	-19.0%	33%	22%	-26.6%
≤90d	18	-10.5%	-19.0%	33%	22%	-26.6%
all	18	-10.5%	-19.0%	33%	22%	-26.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover95.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.0%	22%	-26.6%
10% ← realistic here	-26.8%	22%	-33.6%
15%	-33.8%	22%	-40.0%
20%	-40.3%	17%	-45.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -57% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day95.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$7	−$5	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$9	−$5	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$4	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 16	$6	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 15	$7	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 15	$3	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$10	+173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$7	+251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 15	$13	−$13	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$8	+393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	SELL Down	16¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	SELL Down	8¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Down	34¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Down	34¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Down	34¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	SELL Down	6¢	$1	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records