Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93b6…c90f sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-17%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$85
other 22% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -30.0%
≤30d 14 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -30.0%
≤90d 14 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -30.0%
all 14 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 43% -30.0%
10% -34.8% 43% -36.7%
15% -41.1% 43% -42.8%
20% -46.8% 29% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$27 -65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$8 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$13 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$20 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 16¢ $4 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 16¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $30 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $12 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $20 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $20 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 41h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $20 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $20 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records