Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93b4…909d
crypto · 548 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4,958 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,898 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$294
Realized−$4,898
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses131 / 413
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)544 / 548
History coverage110d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 544 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$944
14 days−$7,174
30 days−$4,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $21 $152 +$132 (+630%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $114 $106 −$8 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$158 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$25 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$14 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$24 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $104 −$43 -42%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$3,083
world 11% −$1,655
sports 0% −$24
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $69 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +8.2% -2.1% 32% 30% -48.1%
≤30d 538 -19.3% -27.0% 24% 22% -29.6%
≤90d 544 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 22% -30.1%
all 544 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 22% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 22% -30.1%
10% -34.7% 21% -36.8%
15% -41.0% 19% -42.9%
20% -46.8% 18% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.02 · official $294.02 (match) · 1871 history records