Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93b3…d4cb other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3
other 26% −$10
politics 24% −$2
finance 4% +$1
economics 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 66 -2.0% -11.4% 21% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage266d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $19 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 01 $15 −$1 -4%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $3 $0 -9%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Oct 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $13 −$1 -5%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 18 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $2 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $54 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $54 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records