Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93b3…893e world 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$977 (-8%) realized −$703 · open −$274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%37W / 134L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,099
7 days−$3,283
14 days−$2,603
30 days−$2,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$842
finance 1% −$170
other 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$56
politics 0% +$68
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% −$5
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +102.1% +82.8% 47% 47% -91.7%
≤30d 69 +21.9% +10.3% 29% 29% -58.3%
≤90d 139 -28.1% -34.9% 19% 17% -18.9%
all 171 -10.4% -18.9% 22% 20% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 20% -14.9%
10% -26.7% 18% -23.1%
15% -33.7% 16% -30.5%
20% -40.2% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$42 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$703
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses37 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)171 / 213
History coverage397d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 32¢ 29¢ $48 $43 −$4 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $75 $32 −$43 (-58%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 97¢ $11 $29 +$18 (+173%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $36 $24 −$13 (-35%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $38 $20 −$18 (-47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 8¢ 66¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+719%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $33 $14 −$20 (-59%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 30¢ 44¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+51%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 12¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-36%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $66 $9 −$56 (-86%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-57%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 43¢ 64¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 1¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-79%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $52 $3 −$50 (-95%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 57¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 +$30 +661%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $56 +$91 +163%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3,519 −$3,195 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $57 −$46 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +166%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$90 +899%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $67 −$67 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $4 +$16 +376%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $190 −$92 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $24 +$156 +665%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $808 +$596 +74%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $2 +$7 +334%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$6 +191%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $3 +$3 +100%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +183%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 −$33 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $3 +$6 +203%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$11 +122%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 8m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 7¢ $7 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 2¢ $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $10 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $10 12h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $10 26h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $7 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $9 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 27h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $0 30h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $33 31h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 32h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $53 34h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $14 34h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $18 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $25 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 34h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.52 · official $350.60 · 864 history records