Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93b1…4781 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,597 (-14%) realized −$1,562 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%52W / 34L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$333
14 days−$1,080
30 days−$1,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,696
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.0% -13.2% 58% 58% -15.8%
≤30d 86 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 57% -22.4%
≤90d 86 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 57% -22.4%
all 86 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 57% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 57% -22.4%
10% -23.3% 43% -29.8%
15% -30.7% 35% -36.6%
20% -37.5% 17% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$139 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,562
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses52 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage29d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$15 +71%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $49 −$28 -58%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 20 $64 −$15 -23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $55 +$9 +17%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,634 −$1,617 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $609 +$579 +95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $937 +$175 +19%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $622 +$315 +51%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $452 +$170 +38%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $318 +$134 +42%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $221 +$98 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $72 −$71 -99%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $60 +$12 +19%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $55 +$5 +9%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $131 −$45 -35%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $130 −$128 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $328 −$92 -28%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $133 −$131 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $129 −$127 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $98 +$31 +31%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $221 −$117 -53%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $148 −$147 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $93 +$56 +60%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $82 +$11 +13%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 06 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $477 −$467 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $207 +$272 +132%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $144 +$63 +44%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $753 −$741 -98%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $173 −$169 -98%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $443 +$483 +109%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $31 +$127 +413%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $178 +$139 +78%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $59 −$58 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $80 +$18 +22%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $22 +$19 +88%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $37 −$37 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $20 +$16 +81%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $13 +$7 +57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $7 +$6 +74%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner May 31 $30 +$9 +31%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $21 +$10 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL Gentle Mates 33¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 76¢ $49 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 39¢ $49 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 49¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 93¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 79¢ $55 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $13 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $58 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $1,026 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $607 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $1,188 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $609 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $1,112 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $937 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $937 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $622 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $622 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $452 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $452 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $318 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $319 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 68¢ $221 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 89¢ $100 7d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 57¢ $72 11d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $72 11d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 83¢ $60 11d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 99¢ $60 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 167 history records