Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93af…32ab sports 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,356 (-16%) realized −$5,803 · open −$553
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%132W / 220L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day56.7pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,852
7 days−$3,794
14 days−$3,451
30 days−$3,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$898
other 37% −$564
world 1% +$92
tech 0% +$9
crypto 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 +83.3% +65.8% 31% 28% -21.9%
≤30d 239 +81.6% +64.3% 31% 28% -20.1%
≤90d 352 +72.1% +55.8% 38% 31% -17.6%
all 352 +72.1% +55.8% 38% 31% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +55.8% 31% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here +40.8% 25% -25.5%
15% +27.2% 20% -32.7%
20% +14.8% 18% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +35% → late +109% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$56 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,227
Realized−$5,803
Unrealized−$553
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses132 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions6
Markets (closed)352 / 180
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$227
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 75¢ $477 $751 +$274 (+57%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 97¢ $211 $483 +$272 (+129%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $384 $391 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $198 $240 +$43 (+22%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 25¢ $406 $124 −$282 (-69%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$6 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 32¢ 3¢ $351 $37 −$314 (-89%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $13 −$15 -108%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $1 −$1 -89%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$18 -88%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $3 +$15 +498%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $18 −$34 -191%
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $197 −$253 -128%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $18 −$9 -50%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs BoostGate Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 25 $9 +$74 +778%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $86 −$87 -101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $2 +$106 +5990%
LoL: FALKE Esports vs UB Alma Mater - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $37 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $40 −$44 -111%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs OLDBOYS- - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $15 −$7 -44%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$3 -25%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $12 −$11 -91%
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $1 +$1 +163%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs BoostGate Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $17 $0 +2%
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 +$17 +172%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $43 −$63 -146%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winne Jun 25 $4 +$11 +292%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $1 −$127 -17558%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $4 +$3 +69%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jun 25 $2 $0 -31%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $2 −$1 -65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Lodis vs devils.one - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $14 −$13 -91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Jun 25 $41 −$65 -161%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $0 +$18 +5629%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 25 $74 −$23 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 25 $0 +$21 +6855%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $24 −$32 -132%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $46 −$33 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $6 −$7 -115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $55 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $79 36m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $46 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $79 36m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $71 36m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $71 36m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 37m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 37m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 37m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,226.74 · official $2,226.84 (match) · 3500 history records