Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ac…2761 sports 679 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,942 (+8%) realized +$9,810 · open +$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%402W / 263L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day317.2pace
Fees−$1,618est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$19,951
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 500 +4.1% -5.8% 63% 62% -22.3%
≤30d 665 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 59% -23.9%
≤90d 665 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 59% -23.9%
all 665 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 59% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 59% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 58% -31.2%
15% -22.2% 44% -37.8%
20% -29.8% 32% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$194 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,716
Realized+$9,810
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses402 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,618
Open positions15
Markets (closed)665 / 679
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day317.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 64¢ 100¢ $1,170 $1,817 +$647 (+55%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Under 45¢ 100¢ $505 $1,130 +$625 (+124%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 18¢ $415 $169 −$246 (-59%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ 82¢ $128 $154 +$26 (+20%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 60¢ 100¢ $74 $123 +$49 (+67%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $56 $119 +$63 (+113%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ 99¢ $43 $85 +$42 (+99%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ 61¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 58¢ 100¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+74%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) San Diego Padres 50¢ 100¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+102%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 45¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Under 59¢ 31¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 0¢ $497 $0 −$497 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) St. Louis Cardinals 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 +$5 +49%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $514 +$177 +34%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +66%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $4 +$6 +126%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $49 +$38 +78%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $56 +$52 +91%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1,704 +$333 +20%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +88%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $12 −$1 -10%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$13 -72%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $73 +$35 +48%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$49 -96%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) Jun 17 $236 −$236 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $17 +$16 +90%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $62 +$18 +28%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 17 $11 −$6 -56%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +51%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $33 +$23 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $45 +$54 +121%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $136 −$129 -95%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $104 +$51 +49%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $85 +$29 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +84%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $11 +$5 +50%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 +$177 +87%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $992 +$119 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +121%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $89 +$39 +44%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $102 +$26 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $531 +$595 +112%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $851 −$846 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +63%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 71¢ $1 27m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 71¢ $56 27m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 31m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $211 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $4 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $7 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $121 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $36 35m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $5 38m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 50m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $37 52m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $114 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $15 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $64 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 55m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 55m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 55m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 55m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $0 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $8 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $44 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,715.95 · official $3,719.33 (match) · 3500 history records