Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93aa…4ab1 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,202 (+1%) realized +$1,258 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,262per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$12,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$3,211
sports 42% +$458
weather 2% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 54% +2.5%
≤30d 29 -12.4% -20.7% 72% 48% -6.0%
≤90d 29 -12.4% -20.7% 72% 48% -6.0%
all 29 -12.4% -20.7% 72% 48% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 48% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 21% -15.0%
15% -35.2% 14% -23.2%
20% -41.6% 10% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$4,120) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$792 vs −$1,657 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$12,944
Realized+$1,258
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3,262
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $8,000 $7,954 −$46 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $5,000 $4,990 −$10 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $9,041 +$660 +7%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $501 +$19 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $4,513 +$487 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11,216 +$1,332 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,585 +$1,629 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7,996 +$1,589 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7,985 +$2,304 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,130 −$4,120 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 +$24 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,840 +$228 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,262 −$50 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,729 +$4,666 +69%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $501 +$36 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $589 −$586 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $551 +$30 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,453 +$602 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $2,858 +$1,464 +51%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $2,105 −$2,097 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,003 +$102 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1,303 +$700 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,126 +$176 +16%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 01 $851 +$276 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $735 +$115 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $506 −$504 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,073 +$157 +15%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5) May 30 $1,924 −$1,911 -99%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 30 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $2,994 −$2,987 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $5,006 4m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $8,031 17m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $520 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $501 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 93¢ $1,002 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 93¢ $8,039 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $1,504 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $3,009 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12,548 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $11,216 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $11,214 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $9,585 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $7,996 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $10,289 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $6 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $7,979 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,130 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $201 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $501 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,068 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $834 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $1,707 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $51 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 70¢ $1,211 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $11,395 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $536 7d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $537 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,943.95 · official $12,941.35 (match) · 118 history records