Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93aa…c749 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$8
sports 26% −$7
other 18% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 12% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 18% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 18% 0% -10.5%
all 31 -4.1% -13.3% 29% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage460d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $37 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 −$4 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $164 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $180 $0 -0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 11 $125 −$7 -5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.54 · official $35.49 (match) · 85 history records