Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93a3…223e other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+3%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$63
14 days−$209
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$215
sports 22% −$231
world 6% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.9% -33.9% 19% 19% -11.6%
≤30d 38 -30.8% -37.4% 18% 18% -16.0%
≤90d 38 -30.8% -37.4% 18% 18% -16.0%
all 38 -30.8% -37.4% 18% 18% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 18% -16.0%
10% -43.3% 18% -24.0%
15% -48.8% 18% -31.3%
20% -53.8% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$64 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 31
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $173 −$168 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$89 -86%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $206 −$44 -21%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $307 −$300 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $27 −$26 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $307 +$641 +209%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 −$80 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$190 +186%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $112 +$211 +188%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 +$73 +237%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$49 -97%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $102 +$234 +229%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -97%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$58 +291%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $82 +$362 +442%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 −$45 -97%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $173 57m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No $14 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $162 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $102 10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $205 10h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $256 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $27 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $31 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over $21 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $797 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $152 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $29 4d
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $31 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $31 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $292 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.53 (match) · 71 history records