Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93a0…6623 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,246 (+3%) realized +$4,074 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%87W / 69L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1,628est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,070
7 days+$6,752
14 days+$1,248
30 days+$3,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$4,973
other 4% −$173
politics 1% −$1,002
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +10.0% -0.5% 63% 58% +4.8%
≤30d 156 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 52% -6.4%
≤90d 156 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 52% -6.4%
all 156 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 52% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 52% -6.4%
10% -17.8% 48% -15.3%
15% -25.7% 45% -23.5%
20% -33.0% 38% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$449 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$6,262
Realized+$4,074
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses87 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,628
Open positions8
Markets (closed)156 / 164
History coverage591d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 66¢ 80¢ $1,515 $1,851 +$337 (+22%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 72¢ 69¢ $1,440 $1,390 −$50 (-3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 62¢ 69¢ $1,134 $1,272 +$137 (+12%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 43¢ $496 $427 −$69 (-14%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 62¢ $372 $369 −$3 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 61¢ 60¢ $366 $357 −$9 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 64¢ 43¢ $512 $344 −$168 (-33%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 51¢ 50¢ $255 $252 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $985 +$815 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $369 +$231 +63%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $2,429 −$935 -38%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $1,612 +$1,388 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1,523 +$591 +39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1,155 −$59 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $2,025 −$414 -20%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $1,612 −$105 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $941 +$559 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $911 +$504 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1,011 +$588 +58%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $303 +$173 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $303 +$145 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $809 −$800 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $881 +$619 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $926 +$574 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $322 +$278 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1,057 +$743 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1,957 +$489 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $310 −$306 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $510 −$504 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $546 +$33 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $186 −$183 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $541 +$259 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $725 +$575 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $936 +$714 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,084 +$566 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $364 +$236 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $567 +$433 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $507 −$501 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $577 +$422 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $388 −$384 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$37 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$189 +474%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,362 +$137 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $309 −$146 -47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 −$144 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $508 +$372 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $525 +$325 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $514 +$306 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $546 +$3 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $520 −$513 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $525 −$520 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $253 +$132 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $271 +$79 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $13 57m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $4 57m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $19 58m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $8 58m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $153 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $259 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $370 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $376 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,129 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $145 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $133 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $19 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $1,307 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $1,200 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $985 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $4 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $31 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $61 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $4 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $23 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $13 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $234 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 58¢ $1,145 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 61¢ $301 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $538 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $31 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $527 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 6¢ $35 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 81¢ $67 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 81¢ $36 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,262.08 · official $6,262.46 (match) · 848 history records