Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
93 0x93a0…4147 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 4% -7.2%
≤30d 25 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 4% -7.2%
≤90d 25 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 4% -7.2%
all 25 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 4% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 4% -7.2%
10% -15.6% 0% -16.1%
15% -23.8% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.3% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×57.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×181.17 per $1 lost it wins $181.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.59 · official $1.59 (match) · 53 history records