Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x939f…2865 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,874 (-18%) realized −$2,774 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$377
14 days−$377
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$6
other 21% −$2,536
politics 19% −$304
sports 10% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 41% -13.5%
≤30d 56 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 56 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 41% -13.5%
all 80 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 36% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -26.0%
10% -34.0% 35% -33.1%
15% -40.4% 26% -39.6%
20% -46.2% 22% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$147 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,774
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage380d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $304 −$37 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$75 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $357 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$83 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$84 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $177 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$156 +100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $178 +$59 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $232 +$162 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$174 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$173 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$190 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$100 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$161 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $183 +$347 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $111 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $219 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $47 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $379 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $314 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $66 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $354 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 210 history records