Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x939e…58d6 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
other 24% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 10% $0
economics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage113d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $92 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $94 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $92 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 13h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $92 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $92 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 28d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $92 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $92 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $92 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $93 44d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $93 47d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $93 47d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 50d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 50d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 68d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 69d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 71d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 71d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 75d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 76d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 79d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 79d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $94 86d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $94 86d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $94 92d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $94 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records