Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x939c…b826 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4
other 24% −$10
politics 13% −$1
crypto 11% $0
finance 5% −$7
sports 4% $0
culture 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -10.4%
all 43 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.2% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage303d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $28 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $62 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 −$7 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $32 +$3 +10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -48%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $11 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 -7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 21 $8 $0 -6%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $18 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $18 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $20 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $8 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $4 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $23 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $28 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $27 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $28 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $5 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $27 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $32 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.51 · official $27.37 (match) · 186 history records