Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9398…cd91 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-9%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$21
other 38% −$13
crypto 7% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 48% -15.8%
≤30d 40 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 48% -15.8%
≤90d 40 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 48% -15.8%
all 40 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 48% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 48% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 42% -23.8%
15% -10.3% 35% -31.2%
20% -19.1% 25% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt leading at halftime? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Under 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 66¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$10 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$10 +80%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$11 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +118%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$12 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11m
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 13¢ $1 15m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $2 16m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 30m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 34m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 47¢ $2 35m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 38m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 52m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 53m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.96 · official $33.96 (match) · 92 history records