Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
93 0x9395…ec86 sports 1810 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11,581 (-639%) realized −$11,581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%1662W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -25.5% -32.6% 69% 1% -99.6%
≤30d 1011 -8.3% -17.1% 84% 2% -98.4%
≤90d 1884 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 2% -97.0%
all 1884 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 2% -97.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 2% -97.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -97.2%
15% -29.2% 0% -97.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$235 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11,581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1662 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1884 / 1810
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 222 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Menorca: Zdenek Kolar vs Sergio Callejon Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs Ilia Simakin Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Li Tu Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broom Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Naples: Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Martineau Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Rodrigo Pacheco Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Zachary Svajda Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Sarasota: Andres Andrade vs Tyler Zink Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Vit Kopriva vs Matteo Arnald Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Franco Agamenone Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Yokkaichi: Rio Noguchi vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
BMW Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sarasota: Alex Rybakov vs Martin Damm Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Wuning 2: Alastair Gray vs Alexandr Binda Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Philip Sekulic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Dellien Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Split: Alexander Vasilev vs George Loffhagen Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Menorca: Valentin Royer vs Alex Martinez Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs David Goffin Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Asuncion: Nicolas Kicker vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Sarasota: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Ignacio Buse vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Tallahassee: Jack Kennedy vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tallahassee: Alex Rybakov vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Morelos: Robin Catry vs Alejandro Hayen Jun 17 $1,052 −$1,052 -100%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Sarasota: Strong Kirchheimer vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Naples: Andrea Guerrieri vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Barletta: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maxime Chazal Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Santiago: Thiago Monteiro vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Mexico City: Nicolas Mejia vs Vladyslav Orlov Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Cap Cana: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adam Walton Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Aleksandar Vukic vs Taha Baadi Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Naples: Francesco Forti vs Vit Kopriva Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion: Adolfo Vallejo vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Dan Martin vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Phoenix: Corentin Moutet vs Marcos Giron Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Yokkaichi: Hayato Matsuoka vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ $1 6m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 91¢ $1 7h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $1 8h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 91¢ $1 9h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 92¢ $1 11h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 91¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 91¢ $1 13h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 91¢ $1 13h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 92¢ $1 13h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 93¢ $1 13h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 92¢ $1 14h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 91¢ $1 14h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 92¢ $1 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 91¢ $1 14h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 91¢ $1 14h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 92¢ $1 15h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 92¢ $1 15h
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 92¢ $1 15h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Gustavo Heide 91¢ $1 15h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 91¢ $1 15h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 91¢ $1 16h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 91¢ $1 16h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 94¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 94¢ $1 16h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 91¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 95¢ $1 16h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 91¢ $1 17h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $1 17h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Guido Justo 91¢ $1 17h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 93¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.99 (match) · 3500 history records