Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9390…dca0 sports 55 markets active 17h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,609 (-21%) realized −$4,609 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate67%37W / 18L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$760
14 days+$760
30 days+$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$2,125
other 18% −$2,466
politics 1% +$30
world 1% −$49
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +38.6% +25.4% 100% 100% +20.8%
≤30d 4 +38.6% +25.4% 100% 100% +20.8%
≤90d 4 +38.6% +25.4% 100% 100% +20.8%
all 55 -16.2% -24.2% 67% 27% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 27% -28.2%
10% -31.4% 18% -35.0%
15% -38.1% 11% -41.3%
20% -44.1% 9% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$522 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized−$4,609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses37 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage564d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,035 +$183 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $49 +$6 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $813 +$203 +25%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $369 +$369 +100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 06 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $312 −$111 -36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $1,764 −$1,764 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $779 +$691 +89%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Mar 02 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $14 −$14 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Mar 01 $1,047 −$1,047 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2025? Feb 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Feb 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 14 $977 +$70 +7%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 12 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Oct 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 19 $56 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Sumy before October? Aug 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 11 $11 $0 +2%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Aug 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Aug 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will USA beat Switzerland? Jul 07 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 13 $51 +$18 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEF Apr 08 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration? Jan 31 $22 +$3 +12%
Celtics vs. Wizards Jan 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Dec 16 $173 −$173 -100%
Bruins vs. Canucks Dec 15 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Dec 15 $217 −$13 -6%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Dec 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 11 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Sporting CP beat Club Brugge? Dec 11 $825 +$573 +70%
Will Everton vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Dec 10 $2,370 +$78 +3%
Kings vs. Spurs Dec 07 $52 +$1 +1%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Dec 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Stars vs. Golden Knights Dec 07 $969 +$1,267 +131%
Thunder vs. Raptors Dec 06 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $865 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $44 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $44 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $62 17h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $433 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $12 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $355 41h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $365 2d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? BUY Yes 40¢ $202 106d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 92¢ $186 109d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Invictus Gaming $127 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $18 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $13 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $135 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $156 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $45 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $23 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $83 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $58 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $528 109d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 90¢ $705 109d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,217.99 · official $1,217.99 (match) · 334 history records