Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x938d…19fc
sports · 88 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open +$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$531
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses50 / 29
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions9
Markets (closed)79 / 88
History coverage105d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 9 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$226
14 days−$226
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 56¢ 66¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+18%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 12¢ $83 $109 +$26 (+31%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 64¢ 50¢ $74 $57 −$17 (-23%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 15¢ 36¢ $16 $38 +$22 (+142%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $31 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+74%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 39¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+29%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 39¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+108%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 68¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 38¢ 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 74¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers Rockets 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Warriors Warriors 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Bulls 76¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Florida Gators 87¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $44 −$24 -55%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 12 $66 +$20 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $391 −$229 -58%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $102 +$28 +27%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $74 −$19 -25%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $145 −$3 -2%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $1,296 −$7 -0%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 16 $20 $0 -2%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 14 $471 +$41 +9%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 12 $116 −$7 -6%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $209 +$15 +7%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $154 −$126 -82%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 29 $144 +$31 +22%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 29 $143 +$30 +21%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $33 −$17 -52%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $19 +$6 +32%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $23 +$1 +6%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $151 +$22 +14%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $19 −$15 -78%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $182 +$1 +0%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 26 $22 −$19 -86%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $240 +$10 +4%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 26 $308 +$42 +14%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $323 +$25 +8%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 24 $182 +$16 +9%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 24 $166 +$26 +15%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $138 +$12 +9%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 23 $185 +$14 +8%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 23 $245 +$53 +22%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $261 +$37 +14%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 23 $88 +$4 +4%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 23 $199 −$179 -90%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $88 +$11 +12%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $237 +$72 +30%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 22 $4 +$1 +13%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $280 +$52 +19%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 22 $88 +$8 +10%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 22 $316 +$24 +8%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $205 −$31 -15%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 22 $88 +$4 +4%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 21 $88 +$7 +8%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars Mar 21 $44 +$2 +4%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 21 $44 +$5 +12%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 21 $124 +$26 +21%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 21 $132 +$17 +13%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 21 $224 +$17 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$80
other 3% +$23
weather 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 14m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $6 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 61¢ $11 14m
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $12 39m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $4 39m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $13 39m
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $21 39m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $8 39m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $20 39m
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $21 40m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $8 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $20 40m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 64¢ $3 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 55¢ $4 48m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $8 48m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $9 48m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $3 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $5 48m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 48m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $8 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $12 48m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 64¢ $8 49m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 54¢ $11 49m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $9 49m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $12 49m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $20 49m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $8 49m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $11 49m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 50m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $9 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.8% -22.1% 29% 29% -38.6%
≤30d 7 -13.8% -22.1% 29% 29% -38.6%
≤90d 58 -6.1% -15.0% 69% 34% -8.6%
all 79 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 32% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 32% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 6% -17.6%
15% -30.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -36.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.15 · official $536.37 (match) · 3170 history records