Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x938c…9f55 crypto 1122 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,165 (+22%) realized +$5,167 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%731W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day131.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$361
other 2% +$28
sports 0% −$69
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 431 -1.9% -11.2% 63% 42% -13.0%
≤30d 1120 -0.2% -9.7% 65% 44% -11.0%
≤90d 1120 -0.2% -9.7% 65% 44% -11.0%
all 1120 -0.2% -9.7% 65% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 44% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 32% -19.5%
15% -26.2% 24% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5,167
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses731 / 389
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1120 / 1122
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day131.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+58%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$45 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$36 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $149 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.02 · official $31.97 (match) · 3500 history records