Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x938c…c214 other 8 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-45%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$8
other 45% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-57.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -53.5% -57.9% 33% 33% -78.8%
≤30d 3 -53.5% -57.9% 33% 33% -78.8%
≤90d 3 -53.5% -57.9% 33% 33% -78.8%
all 3 -53.5% -57.9% 33% 33% -78.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.9% 33% -78.8%
10% -61.9% 33% -80.8%
15% -65.6% 33% -82.7%
20% -69.0% 0% -84.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 9 history records