Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x938b…46c0 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,821 (+1%) realized +$1,822 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$23
14 days−$54
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$325
politics 37% −$90
sports 4% +$2,286
world 3% −$70
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -9.6% -18.2% 6% 3% -8.8%
all 161 -1.2% -10.6% 19% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 12% -8.7%
10% -19.1% 11% -17.4%
15% -27.0% 9% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$8 · ×11.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$1,822
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $696 $696 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $413 $412 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,231 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $6,145 −$6 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,741 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,645 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $5,194 −$6 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,008 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $85 +$67 +79%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,571 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,122 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,011 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,560 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,448 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $55 +$65 +119%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $5,669 −$7 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $889 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $2,388 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $8,298 −$9 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,236 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $2,396 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 08 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,276 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,983 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $696 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $645 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $646 3h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 34h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 43h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $413 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $829 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $830 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $916 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $918 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $712 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $712 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,457 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,459 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $76 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,338 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,340 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.16 · official $1,108.16 (match) · 537 history records