trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -6.3% | -15.3% | 86% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 23 | -6.0% | -15.0% | 87% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -37.4% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $95 | $95 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $80 | $80 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Jun 20 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? | Jun 20 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 | Jun 20 | $30 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? | Jun 20 | $300 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? | May 13 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | May 13 | $1,437 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 14 be betwe | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 15? | May 13 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep | May 13 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | May 13 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? | May 13 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | May 13 | $50 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | May 13 | $207 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Apr 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Apr 15 | $68 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? | Apr 15 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? | Apr 15 | $50 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? | Apr 15 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week | Apr 15 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on March 28? | Apr 15 | $50 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 15 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? | Mar 20 | $367 | +$3 | +1% |