Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x9388…0321 sports 15 markets active 5h ago coverage 4d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$24
other 25% +$91
world 9% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+85.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +105.4% +85.8% 56% 56% +51.2%
≤30d 9 +105.4% +85.8% 56% 56% +51.2%
≤90d 9 +105.4% +85.8% 56% 56% +51.2%
all 9 +105.4% +85.8% 56% 56% +51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.8% 56% +51.2%
10% +68.1% 56% +36.7%
15% +51.8% 56% +23.5%
20% +36.9% 44% +11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 42¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+47%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 72¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -195%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -195%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$19 -195%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$81 +786%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $9 +$34 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $10 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 38h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.45 · official $87.25 (match) · 3500 history records