Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9387…104b crypto 1088 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate76%828W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$31
14 days+$27
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 +3.1% -6.8% 80% 48% -7.5%
≤30d 444 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 38% -10.0%
≤90d 1087 +5.0% -5.0% 76% 62% -10.4%
all 1087 +5.0% -5.0% 76% 62% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 62% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 9% -19.0%
15% -22.4% 5% -26.8%
20% -30.0% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses828 / 259
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1087 / 1088
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1087 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.16 · official $15.48 (match) · 3500 history records