Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9386…fdfe sports 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,941 (+4%) realized +$41,959 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%206W / 111L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$3,466per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$747est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$4,219
14 days+$2,181
30 days−$9,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$26,017
other 21% +$11,120
economics 18% +$18,771
world 14% +$4,113
politics 12% +$32,141
finance 5% −$1,884
tech 4% +$326
crypto 1% +$1,847
culture 0% +$1,291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +17.8%
≤30d 23 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 57% -17.3%
≤90d 82 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 55% -12.7%
all 317 +1.5% -8.1% 65% 55% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 55% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 38% -15.0%
15% -24.9% 26% -23.2%
20% -32.3% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$3,248) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,041 vs −$1,556 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$27,413
Realized+$41,959
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses206 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$747
Open positions4
Markets (closed)317 / 321
History coverage620d
Avg bet$3,466
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $13,995 $13,942 −$52 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $7,650 $7,989 +$339 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 84¢ 94¢ $4,901 $5,480 +$580 (+12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 59¢ $885 $1 −$884 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $883 +$117 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $547 +$553 +101%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 27 $8,939 +$957 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,525 +$1,475 +58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,056 +$1,118 +106%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,349 +$893 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,531 +$469 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,433 −$3,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $2,761 +$601 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $33,661 +$6,973 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9,222 −$9,200 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5,604 −$5,602 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,713 −$1,691 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $592 +$1,408 +238%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4,959 +$1,883 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,299 −$2,299 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,590 +$410 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $331 −$324 -98%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $8,098 +$1,318 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $791 −$780 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $3,350 −$3,350 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,070 −$62 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $866 −$855 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,314 +$686 +52%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,230 +$2,270 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1,472 +$528 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,040 −$1,000 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,174 +$826 +70%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5,065 +$815 +16%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $1,454 +$538 +37%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $1,680 +$320 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $1,274 −$1,260 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $562 −$548 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $627 +$373 +60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $14,381 +$5,643 +39%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $1,590 +$410 +26%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $936 +$624 +67%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $367 +$633 +172%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $955 +$545 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $1,432 −$832 -58%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $1,525 −$1,520 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $7,412 +$699 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $2,990 +$1,401 +47%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $926 −$915 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $760 +$1,227 +161%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $705 −$705 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $660 +$1,300 +197%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $690 +$786 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $896 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 88¢ $883 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $547 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 85¢ $4,901 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $9,896 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $1,056 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,525 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $3,433 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $1,531 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $14,023 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14,234 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9,222 14d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,004 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $567 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,146 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2,299 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $2,761 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $592 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 28¢ $331 16d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $1,590 16d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $883 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,150 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,839 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 17d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,412.77 · official $27,412.77 (match) · 1914 history records