Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9380…1d32 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$22
other 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 40% -8.0%
10% -22.5% 40% -16.8%
15% -30.0% 40% -24.8%
20% -36.9% 20% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$71 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage160d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 30 $354 +$173 +49%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $403 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jan 28 $50 +$35 +70%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jan 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 26 $75 +$139 +186%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 23 $74 +$31 +42%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $74 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.64 · official $48.64 (match) · 24 history records