Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x937c…ceff other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$357 (-37%) realized −$357 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$20
politics 14% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.8% +50.0% 67% 67% -12.0%
≤30d 3 +65.8% +50.0% 67% 67% -12.0%
≤90d 3 +65.8% +50.0% 67% 67% -12.0%
all 6 +27.0% +14.9% 50% 50% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 50% -24.4%
10% +3.9% 50% -31.6%
15% -6.2% 50% -38.2%
20% -15.4% 50% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$176 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage186d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $411 −$403 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$222 +218%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 12 $4 +$7 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $112.69 · 12 history records