Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
93 0x9374…2919 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+8%) realized +$78 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%41W / 29L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$55
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$112
other 24% +$16
sports 19% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 58% +15.6%
≤30d 70 -1.7% -11.0% 59% 51% -2.2%
≤90d 70 -1.7% -11.0% 59% 51% -2.2%
all 70 -1.7% -11.0% 59% 51% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 51% -2.2%
10% -19.6% 40% -11.6%
15% -27.3% 29% -20.1%
20% -34.5% 21% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses41 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage17d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $21 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +91%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$15 +292%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +176%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 +$8 +31%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$41 +219%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$13 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 13 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 23m
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 4¢ $2 4h
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $16 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.23 · official $153.23 (match) · 225 history records