Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9373…9da1 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$5
other 24% +$6
politics 10% −$4
sports 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.5% -3.6% 29% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 22% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 6% -8.9%
all 51 +1.3% -8.3% 24% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage258d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $111 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -19%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $118 +$8 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $64 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $60 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $54 −$4 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $17 −$3 -21%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $42 −$5 -11%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $12 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 10 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $21 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $75 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $32 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $63 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $66 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $25 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records