Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9370…1aad other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$11
politics 26% −$6
sports 10% −$12
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage134d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $335 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 07 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 34h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 45h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $26 25d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $135 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $135 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $143 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $143 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $137 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $137 29d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 29d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 32d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $117 32d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $124 32d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $124 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $163 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $163 34d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $126 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $126 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.97 · official $43.97 (match) · 377 history records