Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9370…3108 crypto 65 markets active 4d ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,014 (-3%) realized −$1,016 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%56W / 6L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$254
finance 8% −$443
other 8% −$539
politics 7% +$15
economics 6% +$82
world 5% +$6
sports 4% +$89
tech 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.4% -4.7% 100% 33% -6.4%
≤30d 7 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 14% -7.3%
≤90d 20 -3.7% -12.9% 90% 10% -14.5%
all 62 -2.9% -12.1% 90% 5% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -12.0%
10% -20.5% 2% -20.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$306 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses56 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage240d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $457 $457 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $453 +$5 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $393 +$57 +15%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $1,084 +$5 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $1,057 +$32 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $579 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $1,226 +$18 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $476 +$18 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $700 +$33 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 27 $562 −$559 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 25 $540 +$22 +4%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 23 $474 +$2 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 22 $1,422 +$14 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $677 −$364 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $190 +$64 +34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $423 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March? Mar 29 $142 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 28 $274 +$7 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Mar 25 $141 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 22 $387 +$28 +7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $190 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $178 +$12 +7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 26 $524 +$41 +8%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $492 −$492 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 01 $764 −$1 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 31 $123 +$7 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $41 +$3 +7%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Dec 30 $520 +$23 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $283 +$18 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $119 +$5 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 10 $106 +$4 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $168 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026? Dec 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $17 +$3 +16%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in November? Nov 29 $511 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 20 $609 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 09 $608 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 08 $604 +$4 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $503 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $1,295 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on November 2? Nov 02 $1,239 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 1? Nov 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 01 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $457 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $458 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $453 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $450 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 86¢ $393 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $396 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $190 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $131 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 13d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $522 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $67 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $109 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.18 · official $648.94 (match) · 284 history records