Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x936e…bbc2 other 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%16W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 28% −$3
politics 19% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
economics 8% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 189 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses16 / 173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage166d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $45 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $45 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $461 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $169 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 18d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 96¢ $47 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 95¢ $47 33d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 92d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 92d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $45 92d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $45 92d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $44 92d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $46 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $46 93d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $36 93d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $36 93d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $42 93d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $42 93d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $47 93d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $47 93d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 93d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 94d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 94d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $40 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $40 94d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $38 94d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $38 94d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $50 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.34 · official $44.32 (match) · 783 history records