Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x936e…473f other 303 markets active 3h ago coverage 170d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,434 (+0%) realized +$9,125 · open −$691
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate69%202W / 91L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$8,973per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$107,719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
finance 34% −$3,836
other 22% +$8,759
politics 20% +$50,808
crypto 11% −$4,261
tech 6% −$2,972
sports 4% +$635
culture 3% −$97
world 1% −$1,812
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.1% -14.1% 72% 15% -9.1%
≤30d 123 +4.5% -5.5% 74% 24% -9.9%
≤90d 204 -5.5% -14.5% 68% 21% -9.8%
all 293 -2.8% -12.1% 69% 20% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 20% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 12% -16.7%
15% -28.2% 8% -24.7%
20% -35.2% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,312) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$326 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$107,719
Realized+$9,125
Unrealized−$691
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses202 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)293 / 303
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$8,973
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $99,895 $99,945 +$50 (+0%)
Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 94¢ $3,513 $3,328 −$184 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,373 $2,783 −$590 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,500 $1,524 +$24 (+2%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by December 31? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30? Yes 61¢ 78¢ $27 $34 +$8 (+28%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12B by June 30? Yes 58¢ 61¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30? No 74¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by June 30? Yes 38¢ 5¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 17 $5,140 +$941 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $14,012 +$64 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $223 −$4 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100,844 +$113 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,086 −$147 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $849 −$61 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,910 +$90 +5%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,100 −$324 -29%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1,748 +$2 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $357 +$5 +1%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $65 −$6 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20,148 +$261 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $187 +$53 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? Jun 14 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? Jun 14 $820 +$130 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $97,863 +$271 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $270 −$52 -19%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $10,418 +$223 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $2,187 +$19 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $532 +$19 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9,359 −$398 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $110 +$33 +30%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $12 −$6 -45%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $185 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$52 -73%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? Jun 11 $186 −$186 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $8,864 +$9 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $11,621 +$38 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3,026 +$333 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $570 −$534 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $164 +$35 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $637 +$171 +27%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1,989 +$10 +0%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $362 +$2 +1%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $70,375 +$88 +0%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 07 $238 +$2 +1%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $572 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $19,747 +$192 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $153 −$10 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,035 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $620 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $12,246 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $235 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $15,835 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $122 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $98 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $69,786 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $3 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $145 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $999 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $999 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $999 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $20 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,544 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $15 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $8 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $98 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $37 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $9 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $3,445 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $4,975 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $2,044 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $238 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107,719.21 · official $107,725.21 (match) · 3500 history records