Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9368…80a3 sports 40 markets active 7d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,102 (-6%) realized −$23,102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,012per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$4,946est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$104,275
30 days−$103,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$64,326
other 39% −$89,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -31.8% -38.3% 35% 35% -64.5%
≤90d 40 +5.7% -4.3% 52% 52% -16.8%
all 40 +5.7% -4.3% 52% 52% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 52% -16.8%
10% -13.5% 52% -24.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -32.0%
20% -29.5% 40% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$9,565) neutral
Persistence
early +43% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
43.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,398 vs −$8,412 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4,946
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9,012
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $139,351 −$89,781 -64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,091 −$2,625 -52%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,016 +$4,027 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9,700 −$9,565 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,439 −$2,402 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,684 −$1,652 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,895 −$3,844 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,484 +$2,115 +85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3,901 +$568 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13,290 +$3,457 +26%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,230 −$1,209 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,126 −$3,065 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6,108 −$1,631 -27%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $230 +$212 +92%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6,442 −$444 -7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,530 +$1,141 +45%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,024 −$1,006 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4,399 +$4,173 +95%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $376 −$367 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1,938 −$1,927 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $9,400 +$32,734 +348%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $6,479 −$6,479 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $10,170 −$10,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $10,232 −$10,134 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 03 $10,846 +$6,528 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $10,403 +$16,396 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $7,022 +$2,938 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $4,045 +$3,048 +75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $1,741 +$2,196 +126%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 02 $18,181 +$9,542 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 02 $8,535 +$9,651 +113%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $9,555 +$11,430 +120%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $4,005 +$3,697 +92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $243 +$91 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $5,043 +$1,951 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $10,171 +$13,091 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $12,664 −$12,478 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $7,283 +$5,381 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $273 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $467 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $139 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $683 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $125 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $8,083 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $2,675 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 50¢ $1,479 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 50¢ $11 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 50¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 50¢ $4 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 50¢ $1,186 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $45 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $2,371 10d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $991 10d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,721 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $67 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,604 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2049 history records