Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x9366…6350 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,977 (-7%) realized −$1,581 · open −$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$791per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$345
14 days−$345
30 days−$2,043
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2,057
sports 23% +$630
world 16% −$183
crypto 14% −$250
politics 5% −$732
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% -11.7%
≤30d 19 -26.5% -33.5% 37% 37% -19.5%
≤90d 28 -22.9% -30.3% 43% 43% -18.3%
all 32 -20.8% -28.4% 47% 41% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 41% -18.3%
10% -35.2% 31% -26.1%
15% -41.5% 31% -33.2%
20% -47.2% 22% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$884) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$336 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$3,701
Realized−$1,581
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage115d
Avg bet$791
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $3,247 $2,852 −$395 (-12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $850 $849 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $353 −$11 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $206 −$21 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $356 +$191 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,318 +$1,065 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $884 −$823 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,745 −$250 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $4,235 −$206 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $527 +$226 +43%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $259 +$173 +67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $284 +$223 +78%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $593 −$593 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 05 $1,433 −$1,433 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 25 $1,129 +$153 +14%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 25 $1,388 +$174 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $2,166 +$1,144 +53%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 +$33 +64%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $558 −$558 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 19 $35 +$19 +54%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $205 +$108 +53%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Mar 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $69 +$4 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 01 $22 −$11 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $343 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $342 54m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $485 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 10¢ $185 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $579 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,918 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $508 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $356 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $353 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $355 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $356 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $202 47h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $62 47h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $884 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,773 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $3,495 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,745 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $3,745 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $545 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $206 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $527 6d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $432 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $259 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $284 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $284 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,433 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4,235 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,701.28 · official $3,701.28 (match) · 88 history records