Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9362…d4a4 crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$201 (-9%) realized −$186 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate45%82W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$107
14 days−$172
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$42
crypto 23% −$11
other 19% −$86
politics 11% −$17
finance 7% $0
culture 4% −$16
tech 3% −$25
sports 2% −$15
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -8.9% -17.5% 12% 5% -18.0%
≤30d 89 -18.1% -25.9% 16% 8% -20.8%
≤90d 89 -18.1% -25.9% 16% 8% -20.8%
all 184 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 22% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 22% -18.0%
10% -22.6% 12% -25.9%
15% -30.1% 8% -33.0%
20% -36.9% 6% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses82 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage173d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $86 $73 −$13 (-15%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 76¢ 71¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $50 −$23 -45%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -12%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $77 −$16 -21%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $26 −$17 -64%
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and H Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$3 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $112 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $119 −$6 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $94 −$3 -3%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $0 $0 -2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Base FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? Jun 11 $9 +$11 +122%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 09 $32 +$18 +56%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 09 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 06 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 20 Jun 06 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes $2 2h
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 11h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 11h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 12h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 12h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 12h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $4 14h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 37¢ $4 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 37¢ $4 15h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $20 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 50¢ $61 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $8 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 28¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 63¢ $77 17h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $9 17h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $2 18h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $12 18h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $0 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $86 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 25¢ $18 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 26¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.63 · official $100.63 (match) · 557 history records