Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x935e…6a6b politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,066 (+1%) realized +$1,067 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 96L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$996per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1,391
politics 40% −$56
sports 11% −$282
economics 3% +$2
world 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -14.0% -22.2% 10% 5% -10.6%
all 118 -3.7% -12.9% 19% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 12% -8.7%
10% -21.2% 12% -17.5%
15% -28.8% 10% -25.4%
20% -35.8% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,303) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$15 · ×7.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage124d
Avg bet$996
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $626 $626 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $385 +$2 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,610 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $639 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,863 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $744 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $3,540 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $618 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,852 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,008 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,942 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,077 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,861 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $4,947 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $620 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $430 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,279 −$4 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,785 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 04 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,919 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,496 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $902 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $409 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $627 33h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $756 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $757 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $638 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $639 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $793 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $795 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $756 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $757 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $563 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $564 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $758 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $743 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $744 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $568 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $569 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $700 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $701 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $631 20d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $632 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $699 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $700 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $617 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.55 · official $625.87 (match) · 378 history records