Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x935d…0d09 crypto 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%114W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$36
crypto 39% +$17
other 0% −$5
tech 0% +$3
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$5
world 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 123 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 11% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses114 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage635d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 11? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? May 29 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 16 $157 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? Apr 28 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? Apr 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $166 $0 +0%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $159 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 02 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 1? Mar 02 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 25? Feb 26 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 1 Feb 10 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $143 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $135 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $116 8d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 20d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $3 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $155 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $157 38d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 98¢ $6 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $156 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $153 56d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $160 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $153 72d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 98¢ $3 73d
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 73d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 98¢ $5 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $163 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $166 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $164 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $156 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $155 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $155 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $164 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $157 91d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $168 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $164 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.07 · official $115.07 (match) · 390 history records