Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x935d…72f4 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized −$95 · open +$120
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$151
crypto 7% −$17
world 3% +$21
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 42 +7.9% -2.4% 45% 43% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 43% -6.1%
10% -11.7% 43% -15.1%
15% -20.3% 43% -23.3%
20% -28.1% 38% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage203d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $50 $128 +$78 (+156%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 53¢ 98¢ $50 $92 +$42 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-13.5) Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs T1 (BO3) Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Dec 09 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 04 $20 +$12 +61%
Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11PM ET Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) Dec 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $20 +$11 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $20 +$13 +67%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $12 +$24 +203%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Dec 02 $10 +$5 +47%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $25 +$81 +322%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Dec 02 $15 +$17 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10PM ET Dec 02 $4 +$31 +808%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on December 1? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Dec 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Dec 02 $17 +$16 +96%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) Dec 02 $30 +$38 +127%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $13 +$12 +89%
Broncos vs. Commanders Dec 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Dec 01 $15 +$9 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1) Dec 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Dec 01 $20 +$37 +185%
Spread: Bills (-1.5) Dec 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26? Nov 30 $20 +$21 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) BUY Cloud9 31¢ $20 189d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Cowboys 12¢ $2 193d
Spread: Lions (-3.5) BUY Cowboys 54¢ $14 195d
Spread: Lions (-3.5) BUY Cowboys 54¢ $14 195d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 195d
Valorant: Fnatic vs T1 (BO3) BUY Fnatic 54¢ $20 195d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 195d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 195d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 44¢ $0 196d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 44¢ $4 196d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Warriors 52¢ $20 196d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs BUY Grizzlies 35¢ $21 196d
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) BUY Timberwolves 68¢ $20 196d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 50¢ $10 196d
Spread: 76ers (-13.5) BUY Wizards 52¢ $10 196d
Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) BUY Atletico Madrid 68¢ $10 196d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) BUY Astralis 26¢ $5 196d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) BUY Astralis 31¢ $20 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 196d
Suns vs. Lakers SELL Suns 100¢ $36 196d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) SELL Mavericks 100¢ $15 196d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets SELL Mavericks 100¢ $106 196d
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) SELL Patriots 100¢ $32 196d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $35 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.17 · official $220.17 (match) · 117 history records