Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x935c…460b other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$103 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$497
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$25
world 8% −$52
politics 6% +$47
crypto 4% +$359
sports 2% +$31
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +93.0% +74.6% 75% 75% +106.7%
≤30d 10 +68.8% +52.8% 60% 60% +17.5%
≤90d 36 +45.4% +31.6% 53% 39% +4.5%
all 53 +27.2% +15.1% 51% 40% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 40% +2.3%
10% +4.1% 32% -7.4%
15% -6.0% 28% -16.4%
20% -15.2% 21% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$16 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage120d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $28 +$9 (+44%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 28 $102 +$352 +344%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $213 +$117 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $70 +$24 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$11 +442%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $800 −$116 -14%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $215 −$66 -31%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $605 +$66 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $12 −$1 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $20 +$10 +48%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Apr 27 $30 +$26 +88%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 27 $392 −$17 -4%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $6 +$14 +234%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $18 −$6 -31%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? Apr 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Apr 14 $1 +$7 +671%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $10 +$21 +214%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? Apr 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $21 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? Apr 04 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +8%
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? Mar 31 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? Mar 22 $20 +$9 +43%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 20 $20 −$17 -85%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Mar 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Mar 17 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio Mar 16 $41 +$45 +111%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Mar 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $15 +$12 +83%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.5% an Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 05 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 22¢ $102 10d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 10d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $186 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $213 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 10d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 10d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 13¢ $103 10d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $428 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $70 11d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $70 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 39d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $800 40d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 37¢ $149 46d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $671 46d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 61d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 61d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 61d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 61d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 61d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 61d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $11 61d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.06 · official $106.07 (match) · 253 history records