Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x935b…4c13 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+14%) realized +$24 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$4
other 22% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +17.7%
≤30d 3 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +17.7%
≤90d 3 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +17.7%
all 3 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 67% +17.7%
10% -23.9% 33% +6.4%
15% -31.3% 33% -3.9%
20% -38.0% 33% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.81 per $1 lost it wins $10.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 81¢ 64¢ $43 $34 −$9 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 +$7 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$15 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $43 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $39 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.24 · official $34.24 (match) · 6 history records