Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x935a…9146 sports 34 markets active 6h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$183 (+7%) realized +$186 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$352
14 days+$352
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$876
sports 35% +$1,209
crypto 14% −$163
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +85.6% +67.9% 33% 33% +12.6%
≤30d 12 +85.6% +67.9% 33% 33% +12.6%
≤90d 12 +85.6% +67.9% 33% 33% +12.6%
all 30 +27.0% +14.9% 30% 30% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 30% -0.9%
10% +3.9% 30% -10.4%
15% -6.1% 30% -19.1%
20% -15.3% 30% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$62 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage138d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$37 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$1,083 +1054%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$247 +122%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $547 −$84 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $798 −$775 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 10? Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $223 −$195 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $29 −$24 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 9? Feb 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $35 +$18 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 7? Feb 07 $9 +$12 +134%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 7? Feb 07 $35 +$35 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 06 $3 +$10 +333%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro Lea Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $2 +$7 +334%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 7h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 32h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 32h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $708 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $262 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $57 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $129 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 97¢ $85 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $145 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $107 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $126 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $144 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $103 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $204 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.74 · official $396.74 (match) · 117 history records