Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9357…1e38 crypto 496 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-5%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%248W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$174
14 days−$223
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$236
sports 2% $0
weather 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -12.8% -21.1% 54% 31% -27.2%
≤30d 486 -14.2% -22.3% 50% 34% -18.8%
≤90d 486 -14.2% -22.3% 50% 34% -18.8%
all 493 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 34% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 34% -18.8%
10% -29.8% 29% -26.6%
15% -36.6% 15% -33.7%
20% -42.8% 7% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses248 / 245
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)493 / 496
History coverage159d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Team Resilience 67¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 59¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 39¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$4 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$10 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$19 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $107 −$29 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $97 −$35 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$31 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $70 −$33 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 39¢ $1 6m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $1 9m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 66¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 19¢ $2 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 1¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 94¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 77¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $2 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 73¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 2¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 73¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 59¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 50¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 38¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL G2 Ares 36¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.91 · official $7.91 (match) · 1842 history records