Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
93 0x9356…0466 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 33% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 7% +$2
economics 5% +$1
culture 3% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.1%
all 51 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage268d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $56 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $4 $0 +11%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 05 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Oct 02 $7 $0 +5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 28 $22 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 9m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $39 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $40 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $38 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $36 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $32 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $32 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $20 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $12 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records