Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9356…e52b sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,028 (+14%) realized +$6,092 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,821per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,278
7 days+$4,969
14 days+$4,969
30 days+$4,969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$4,906
politics 24% +$877
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% +7.8%
≤30d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% +7.8%
≤90d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% +7.8%
all 7 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 43% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 43% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 29% -4.9%
15% -25.6% 29% -14.1%
20% -32.9% 29% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,630 vs −$2,891 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$5,937
Realized+$6,092
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage596d
Avg bet$3,821
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2,000 $1,978 −$22 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2,000 $1,978 −$23 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8,123 +$8,753 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,201 +$3,799 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,318 −$4,318 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,964 −$2,954 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6,909 +$1,091 +16%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $1,413 −$1,400 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $9,998 +$877 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $815 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $74 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $81 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $238 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,077 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,032 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5,091 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2,201 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 84¢ $2,971 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 84¢ $630 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 84¢ $717 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $0 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $146 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $7 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $2,600 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $211 39h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 86¢ $6,909 2d
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,413 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,499 592d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $3,472 592d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $4,719 592d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,186 592d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 41¢ $5,336 593d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,936.52 · official $5,936.52 (match) · 37 history records